Long-run dynamics of the U.S. patent classification system

Almost by definition, radical innovations create a need to revise existing classification systems. In this paper, we argue that classification system changes and patent reclassification are common and reveal interesting information about technological evolution. To support our argument, we present three sets of findings regarding classification volatility in the U.S. patent classification system. First, we study the evolution of the number of distinct classes. Reconstructed time series based on the current classification scheme are very different from historical data. This suggests that using the current classification to analyze the past produces a distorted view of the evolution of the system. Second, we study the relative sizes of classes. The size distribution is exponential so classes are of quite different sizes, but the largest classes are not necessarily the oldest. To explain this pattern with a simple stochastic growth model, we introduce the assumption that classes have a regular chance to be split. Third, we study reclassification. The share of patents that are in a different class now than they were at birth can be quite high. Reclassification mostly occurs across classes belonging to the same 1-digit NBER category, but not always. We also document that reclassified patents tend to be more cited than non-reclassified ones, even after controlling for grant year and class of origin

Abstraction de règles et similarité relative dans l'apprentissage de catégories

La présente recherche étudie l'apprentissage et la généralisation dans une tâche de catégorisation de stimuli visuels multidimensionnels. Il s'agit de vérifier si les patrons de classification identifiés pour chaque participant et la reconnaissance des stimuli peuvent être expliqués par l'emploi de règles et la mémorisation d'exceptions. Une méthode formelle de minimisation booléenne a permis d'effectuer la synthèse des différents types de représentation des catégories selon le nombre de classifications correctes observé. Trois types de représentation obtenus correspondent à l'utilisation d'une règle unidimensionnelle, accompagnée d'aucune, d'une ou de deux exceptions apprises. L'analyse de la reconnaissance des stimuli, de l'apprentissage des exceptions et de la généralisation à de nouveau stimuli, suggèrent que l'apprentissage d'une exception peut reposer sur la formulation d'une nouvelle règle sans faire appel à un processus de mémorisation permettant l'identification d'un stimulus en particulier

A New Approach to Intelligent Assistance: Cognitive Shadow

We introduce a prototype intelligent cognitive assistant that continuously learns the decision pattern of the user online, instantly recognizes deviations from that pattern as potential errors and then alerts the user accordingly. The decision model built by the cognitive assistant (henceforth, referred to as the “Cognitive Shadow”) through its interaction with an expert can potentially outperform the human decision maker – as humans are vulnerable to fatigue and distraction and may deviate from their expert decision pattern. Formally capturing expert mental models is wellknown to be a major challenge for the system engineering of decision support solutions since decision makers are often not fully aware of – or cannot verbally express – the basis for their expert judgments. However, successful elicitation and formalization of expert mental models have the potential to provide the underlying algorithms for designing cognitive assistants capable of improving decision quality by recognizing errors in cases where the decision maker is diverging from his usual judgment patterns

Gaze-Aware Cognitive Assistant for Multiscreen Surveillance

Surveillance operators must scan multiple camera feeds to ensure timely detection of incidents; however, variability in scanning behavior can lead to untimely/failed detection of critical information in feeds that were neglected for a long period. Us-ing an eye tracker to monitor screen fixations we can calculate (in real-time) the time elapsed since the last scan of each particular feed, allowing the setting-up of targeted countermeasures contingent on operator oculomotor behavior. One ave-nue is to provide operators with timely alerts to modulate the scan pattern to avoid attentional tunneling and inattentional blindness. We test such an adaptive solution within a major event surveillance simulation and preliminary results show that operator scan behavior can be modulated, although further investigation is re-quired to determine warning frequency and modality to optimize the balance be-tween saliency and workload increase. Future work will focus on adding a real-time vigilance detection and countermeasure capability

A cognitive prosthesis for complex decision-making

While simple heuristics can be ecologically rational and effective in naturalistic decision making contexts, complex situations require analytical decision making strategies, hypothesis-testing and learning. Sub-optimal decision strategies – using simplified as opposed to analytic decision rules – have been reported in domains such as healthcare, military operational planning, and government policy making. We investigate the potential of a computational toolkit called “IMAGE” to improve decision-making by developing structural knowledge and increasing understanding of complex situations. IMAGE is tested within the context of a complex military convoy management task through (a) interactive simulations, and (b) visualization and knowledge representation capabilities. We assess the usefulness of two versions of IMAGE (desktop and immersive) compared to a baseline. Results suggest that the prosthesis helped analysts in making better decisions, but failed to increase their structural knowledge about the situation once the cognitive prosthesis is removed

Footprint of Positive Selection in Treponema pallidum subsp. pallidum Genome Sequences Suggests Adaptive Microevolution of the Syphilis Pathogen

In the rabbit model of syphilis, infection phenotypes associated with the Nichols and Chicago strains of Treponema pallidum (T. pallidum), though similar, are not identical. Between these strains, significant differences are found in expression of, and antibody responses to some candidate virulence factors, suggesting the existence of functional genetic differences between isolates. The Chicago strain genome was therefore sequenced and compared to the Nichols genome, available since 1998. Initial comparative analysis suggested the presence of 44 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), 103 small (≤3 nucleotides) indels, and 1 large (1204 bp) insertion in the Chicago genome with respect to the Nichols genome. To confirm the above findings, Sanger sequencing was performed on most loci carrying differences using DNA from Chicago and the Nichols strain used in the original T. pallidum genome project. A majority of the previously identified differences were found to be due to errors in the published Nichols genome, while the accuracy of the Chicago genome was confirmed. However, 20 SNPs were confirmed between the two genomes, and 16 (80.0%) were found in coding regions, with all being of non-synonymous nature, strongly indicating action of positive selection. Sequencing of 16 genomic loci harboring SNPs in 12 additional T. pallidum strains, (SS14, Bal 3, Bal 7, Bal 9, Sea 81-3, Sea 81-8, Sea 86-1, Sea 87-1, Mexico A, UW231B, UW236B, and UW249C), was used to identify “Chicago-“ or “Nichols -specific” differences. All but one of the 16 SNPs were “Nichols-specific”, with Chicago having identical sequences at these positions to almost all of the additional strains examined. These mutations could reflect differential adaptation of the Nichols strain to the rabbit host or pathoadaptive mutations acquired during human infection. Our findings indicate that SNPs among T. pallidum strains emerge under positive selection and, therefore, are likely to be functional in nature

The reliability of postural balance measures in single and dual tasking in elderly fallers and non-fallers

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to determine the reliability of a forceplate postural balance protocol in a group of elderly fallers and non-fallers. The measurements were tested in single and dual-task conditions, with and without vision. METHODS: 37 elderly (mean age 73 +/- 6 years) community-dwellers were included in this study. All were tested in a single (two-legged stance) and in a dual-task (two-legged stance while counting backwards aloud in steps of 7's) condition, with and without vision. A forceplate was used for registering postural variables: the maximal and the root-mean-square amplitude in medio-lateral (Max-ML, RMS-ML) and antero-posterior (Max-AP, RMS-AP) direction, mean velocity (MV), and the area of the 95% confidence ellipse (AoE). Reliability of the test protocol was expressed with intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC), with 95% limits of agreement (LoA), and with the smallest detectable difference (SDD). RESULTS: The ICCs for inter-rater reliability and test-retest reliability of the balance variables were r = 0.70-0.89. For the variables Max-AP and RMS-AP the ICCs were r = 0.52-0.74. The SDD values were for variable Max-ML and Max-AP between 0.37 cm and 0.83 cm, for MV between 0.48 cm/s and 1.2 cm/s and for AoE between 1.48 cm2 and 3.75 cm2. The LoA analysis by Bland-Altman plots showed no systematic differences between test-retest measurements. CONCLUSION: The study showed good reliability results for group assessment and no systematic errors of the measurement protocol in measuring postural balance in the elderly in a single-task and dual-task condition

Xenopus Resources: Transgenic, Inbred and Mutant Animals, Training Opportunities, and Web-Based Support

Two species of the clawed frog family, Xenopus laevis and X. tropicalis, are widely used as tools to investigate both normal and disease-state biochemistry, genetics, cell biology, and developmental biology. To support both frog specialist and non-specialist scientists needing access to these models for their research, a number of centralized resources exist around the world. These include centers that hold live and frozen stocks of transgenic, inbred and mutant animals and centers that hold molecular resources. This infrastructure is supported by a model organism database. Here, we describe much of this infrastructure and encourage the community to make the best use of it and to guide the resource centers in developing new lines and libraries